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C O L O U R K E 'Y

A meeting at the Royal Society in London

“[Abrupt climate change] from the point of view of the climate - [can be described as] as:

• “the climate system "flips": it crosses some threshold, for example, from a state with a Gulf Stream like today's to one where it stops short further south; and
• “after is has crossed the threshold, further change happens at a speed governed by the climate system itself, not the slow change in whatever pushed the system.

“From the point of view of ecosystems, the more important features of these abrupt changes are that:

• “once the threshold is crossed, the changes persist;
• “the changes are on continental or global scales; and
• “because they are abrupt, these are changes for which ecosystems are unprepared or to which they are incapable of adapting.

Topics covered:

• What is "abrupt climate change"?
• Abrupt Climate Change has happened already
• About climate modelling
• The big picture of climate
• The real world looks more sensitive than the models
• Atmospheric processes and observations
• Recent changes in the North Atlantic
• Return of the Varves - climate records in sediments
• Abrupt climate change in the distant past - the methane connection
• The ice amplifier - the key to modelling?
• Sea ice as the climate switch
• The effect of increasing carbon dioxide on the ocean
• The future of the carbon cycle - new ideas in ocean chemistry
• Surprises in plant responses to CO2
• Can society cope?
• Economics of Abrupt Climate Change
• Scientific challenges & new research

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shifting global and local weather patterns

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food pressure - chocolate is a canary

Interesting short survey of the chocolate market.

“ "We are currently selling a 70g bar for £7 – and the price will go up..." ”
—
“These smallholders earn just 80 cents a day," he says. "So there is no incentive to replant trees when they die off, and to wait up to five years for a new crop, and no younger generation around to do the replanting. The children of these African cocoa farmers, whose life expectancy is only 56, are heading for the cities rather than undertake backbreaking work for such a small reward." As harvests diminish on the Ivory Coast, by far the world's biggest cocoa producer, crops in Indonesia, the third largest producer, have been hit by a change in weather systems, forcing cocoa prices sky-high.

“Demarquette, who makes chocolate for Fortnum's and has a shop in London's Fulham Road, adds that, to make matters worse, the soil in Africa's traditional cocoa fields is rapidly becoming depleted. "In Ghana and Ivory Coast the earth is dead where trees have already been harvested – there are no nutrients left in the soil," he claims. And some farmers in West Africa have turned to child labour to compensate for the manpower shortage.

“ "Production will have decreased within 20 years to the point where we won't see any more cheap bars in vending machines – unless they are made with carob instead of chocolate," he says. "It's because the growers in West Africa only see 2p for every £1 bar. Even if you double that, it's no incentive for the next generation – which rightly expects decent working conditions. Those young people are heading for the cities. They won't stay around just so schoolchildren and commuters can continue to get their quick fix." ”

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land conservation and food production

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plane crashes kill one-tenth the number killed by planes

“In recent years, airplane crashes have killed about a thousand people annually, whereas plane emissions kill about ten thousand people each year, researchers say.”

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climate denialists - giving idiots a vote

“ “There is really no debate about climate change in China,” said Peggy Liu, chairwoman of the Joint U.S.-China Collaboration on Clean Energy, a nonprofit group working to accelerate the greening of China. “China’s leaders are mostly engineers and scientists, so they don’t waste time questioning scientific data.” The push for green in China, she added, “is a practical discussion on health and wealth. There is no need to emphasize future consequences when people already see, eat and breathe pollution every day.”

“And because runaway pollution in China means wasted lives, air, water, ecosystems and money — and wasted money means fewer jobs and more political instability — China’s leaders would never go a year (like we will) without energy legislation mandating new ways to do more with less. It’s a three-for-one shot for them. By becoming more energy efficient per unit of G.D.P., China saves money, takes the lead in the next great global industry and earns credit with the world for mitigating climate change.

“So while America’s Republicans turned “climate change” into a four-letter word — J-O-K-E — China’s Communists also turned it into a four-letter word — J-O-B-S.”

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on china destroying itself, and maybe the rest of us: when a billion chinese jump by watts
pollution and power in china

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and now a real longer-term effect of the bp mess

Note recent price erosion (though the markets have been weak for several days).

“BP has been forced to abandon hopes of drilling in the Arctic, currently the centre of a new oil rush, owing to its tarnished reputation after the Gulf of Mexico spill.

“The company confirmed tonight that it was no longer trying to win an exploration licence in Greenland, despite earlier reports of its interest. "We are not participating in the bid round," said a spokesman at BP's London headquarters, who declined to discuss its reasons for the reverse.”

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