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there are two parties in the us presidential election....

Naturally large numbers attempt to effect this election. Why would you imagine the sum total of those people and effects would only react negatively to your preferred candidate? Two current attempts are

  • the reappearance of bin liner, promising no more trouble in exchange for not troubling him and his followers, and
  • the threats mouthed by Falludjan thugs today of chemical weaponry

Now how will the U.S. public respond when they make their vote for the next President of the United States of America?

It would appear that there is the Ostrich Party and the Realist Party, and it looks to me as if about half the US population are Ostrich supporters, and half are Realism supporters.

As usual, real voting decisions will be taken by the very small percentage that actually think, or even who care. The Ostrich Party clearly care, they really do care most terribly. On the other hand, the Realist Party think rather a lot.

The emotional intensity of caring so much naturally stops people thinking; while thinking too much tends to make monkeys irrational.

Next, you may consider the Opinion Formers as the referees.
The small percentage that care or think are the players on the field,
with the rest of the electorate as the supporters of either the Ostrich Party or the Realist Party.

The infinitesimal number of Opinion Formers guide both the Ostrich players and the Realist players.

The supporters then cheer and wave excitedly from the crowd.... You can mostly tell the supporters apart by the favours they wear; though you will find that they are inclined rapidly to whip off their identifying scarves and other insignia whenever entering the strongholds of the opposing teams.

the web address for the article above is
http://www.abelard.org/news/politics0410.php#realistic_or_ostrich


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the iraq you won't hear about in the leftist press, or from boltneck
An amazing amount of detail on the reconstruction of Iraq.

This link is particularly useful in its description of everyday progress, without the widespread spin posing as ‘analysis’.

“It's just there's another side -- a side where the ebb and flow of the
day-to-day is so normal, it's almost jarring.”

“As my grandmother who survived the Great Depression, Nazi occupation and decades of communist misrule used to say, things are never as good or as bad as they seem. The media exposes us on a daily basis to the idea that things are not as good as they seem. Below are some stories that suggest things aren't as bad either:”

“ One could paraphrase the old saying that the anti-American world opinion is prepared to fight the United States to the last Iraqi [...] ” "

Link from James Hammerton.

the web address for the article above is
http://www.abelard.org/news/politics0410.php#iraq_progress

two serious analysis items on us military requirements

Hanson commentary on patton and finishing the job

"In matters of tactics, Patton was famous for believing that American armies, being militias of the season, were not equipped immediately to go head-to-head in the hard slogging with veteran professional militaries such as the German Wehrmacht of World Wars I and II. Speed, victory, and firepower were our forte - not slow wars of attrition. Of the three greatest American disasters in the European theater in World War II - Market Garden, the Hürtgen Forest and the Ardennes - Patton had nothing to do with these initial defeats and expressed worries over our response in all three instances, inasmuch as Allied countermeasures offered few avenues for mobility and attack on the flank.

“Instead he grasped that air power had revolutionized armored warfare, a sort of mobile infantry at the beck and call of land forces. Thus the old infantry doctrine - that the infantry incrementally goes ahead to clear mines and pockets of resistance, and then the tanks follow, fanning out in a large triangle with the flanks protected - was a recipe for disaster: it meant that the enemy might retreat on a broad front - as the deflation of the bulge in January 1945 attests - harvesting a continuing crop of frontline troops. His idea was rather to have rapid armored wings sweep out, bypass points of resistance, and cause psychological turmoil from the rear that could collapse enemy fronts.”

Friedman on future needs of US forces

“And, leaving moralism aside, it will not work. There is no way around an expanded force and there is, therefore, no way around vastly increased pay and benefits for the troops. This will mean either higher taxes or cutbacks in other areas. However, those who don't serve and don't send their children to serve are no longer going to be able to simply count on being protected by the faceless "others." There ain't no such thing as a free lunch -- and that goes for national defense, as well.

“Something healthy will come out of this. For a country that fights as many wars as the United States does -- and it fights a lot of wars -- the idea that the profession of arms should be treated worse and paid any less than professions like the law or medicine is absurd. Soldiers do not deal with matters of less importance to Americans than lawyers and doctors. In the past, it was possible to get soldiers on the cheap. Those days are past. If the United States plans to have a military in two years, it will have to pay for it.”

the web address for the article above is
http://www.abelard.org/news/politics0410.php#hanson_friedman

why the usa is very very badddd

“In the eighteenth century, a widely credited "degeneration theory" argued for America's inherent inferiority. Animals and humans from Europe, it posited, dwindle in size and shrivel mentally in the New World's wastelands.

“The period 1830-80 witnessed a focus on the alleged failure of the American experiment. Democracy had produced a miserable polity, society, and culture, one on the verge of collapse. The United States threatened as a bad example that might be emulated.

“America's rise to power, 1880-1945, saw fears develop that the American model might dominate the world. Each American military victory - in 1898 (over Spain), 1918 (World War I), and 1945 (World War II) - caused this anxiety to take on new urgency.

“America's stature as one of two superpowers during the Cold War, 1945-90, further enhanced those fears. Whereas the Soviet Union had limited appeal or influence beyond its military prowess, American hegemony threatened via such seemingly innocuous matters as fast food, movies, clothes, and computer programs.

“The United States emerged in 1990 as the unique post-Cold War "hyperpower," fulfilling the worst nightmare of anti-Americans, who blamed it for all of the world's ills and engaged in unprecedented spasms of America-hatred.”

the web address for the article above is
http://www.abelard.org/news/politics0410.php#bad_usa

contrasting endorsements: putin and mahathir

“Mr Putin, speaking at a Central Asian Cooperation Organization summit in Tajikistan, said insurgent attacks in Iraq were “targeted not only and not so much against the international coalition as against President Bush”.

“He said: “International terrorists have set as their goal inflicting the maximum damage to Bush, to prevent his election to a second term.

“If they succeed in doing that, they will celebrate a victory over America and over the entire anti-terror coalition.

“ “In that case, this would give an additional impulse to international terrorists and to their activities, and could lead to the spread of terrorism to other parts of the world.”

“Despite the comments, he stopped short of giving an endorsement to either candidate, saying: “We respect any choice the American people will make.” Russia still opposes the war in Iraq. ” [quoted from The Scotsman]

marker on politics news at anelard.org

“Malaysian Prime Minister's endorsement of John Kerry. In the article Mahathir asks Muslims to vote out Bush, the Malaysian leader addresses an open letter to the American ummah.

“In an open letter sent to the community, believed to number seven million, the former prime minister said during the past four years of the Bush presidency, the Muslims and their countries had suffered oppression and humiliation as never before in the history of Islam.

“Kerry, the Malaysian leader conceded, may not be any different, but the candidates for the presidency of the United States must be made aware that in democratic America, Muslim citizens have a voice and can influence the selection of the rulers of the country. “Bush has shown that despite his protests, he is the cause of the tragedies in Afghanistan, Palestine and Iraq. [...] There is no doubt that he will continue to do this if re-elected,” he told American Muslims. He said he did not wish to dwell on the atrocities committed against the Muslims and Islam, but would like to appeal to Muslim citizens and voters of America to be united and to cast their votes against Bush, in the name of justice, in the name of Islam. “You may not be numerous enough but in marginal constituencies you can make a difference. It is your bounden duty to send a message to candidates that they must be fair to all the communities in the United States if they wish to rule the country. Even if you fail to unseat Bush, you can at least reduce his majority,” concluded the message.” [quoted from belmontclub]

the web address for the article above is
http://www.abelard.org/news/politics0410.php#putin_mahathir

rumsfeld's rules for service in high office

“Congress, the press and the bureaucracy too often focus on how much money or effort is spent, rather than whether the money or effort actually
achieves the announced goal.

It is very difficult to spend "federal (the taxpayers') dollars" so that the intended result is achieved.

Beware when any idea is promoted primarily because it is "bold, exciting, innovative and new." There are many ideas that are "bold, exciting, innovative and new," but also foolish.

The federal government should be the last resort, not the first. Ask if a potential program is truly a federal responsibility or whether it can better be handled privately, by voluntary organizations, or by local or state governments.

As former Rep. Tom Curtis of Missouri said, "Public money drives out private money."

Don't think of yourself as indispensable or infallible. As Charles de Gaulle said, the cemeteries of the world are full of indispensable men.”

and more...

And my favourite:

“Remember: A's hire A's and B's hire C's.”

Note: Donald Rumsfeld was the youngest ever American Defense Secretary, and he is now the oldest serving Defense Secretary.

the web address for the article above is
http://www.abelard.org/news/politics0410.php#rumsfeld

left-wing press decides australian election was not about iraq

With John Howard winning by an increased majority on the heels of his firm stand in Iraq and his backing of the USA, the left-wing press have now determined that the election was not about Iraq, it was about the economy.

An extremely anonymous spokeperson said, “it would have been about Iraq and George Hitler if he had lost, but he didn’t, so it wasn’t”.

note 1: and with the chance of gaining the Senate, which would allow him to reform Australian politics (do a Thatcher).

the web address for the article above is
http://www.abelard.org/news/politics0410.php#oz_election

vote early and vote often - 'opinion' polls

“JUST GOT THIS DEMOCRATIC EMAIL, URGING:

“So, help spin for John Kerry . . . Vote in Online Polls!
National and local news organizations will be conducting online polls during and after the debate asking for readers' opinions. Look for online polls at these news websites, and make sure to vote in every one of them:
* CBS: http://www.cbsnews.com/
* CNN: http://www.cnn.com/
* Fox News: http://www.foxnews.com/
* MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/
* Wall Street Journal: http://www.wsj.com/
* Akron Beacon-Journal: http://www.ohio.com/
* Atlanta Journal-Constitution: http://www.ajc.com/
* Detroit News: http://www.detnews.com/
* Los Angeles Times: http://www.latimes.com/
* Minneapolis-St. Paul Star-Tribune: http://www.startribune.com/
* Orlando Sentinel: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/
* Philadelphia Inquirer: http://www.philly.com/
* South Florida Sun-Sentinel: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/
* Tennessean: www.tennessean.com
* Knoxville News-Sentinel: www.knoxnews.com
* Commercial Appeal: www.commercialappeal.com

“posted at 07:16 PM by Glenn Reynolds
http://instapundit.com/

the web address for the article above is
http://www.abelard.org/news/politics0410.php#democrat_votes

belief increasing that bush admin made major error in falluja
page 1 page 2

Recommended reading.

The Bush administration seems to have forgotten a basic tenet of military force—first you win!

“SUNNI MILITANTS are unquestionably men of hope, who believe fervently that they can drive the Americans out and create another Sunni-dominated state. And the Americans have certainly given them cause to cheer. The "gradualist" approach of the Bush administration has been a gift. The American retreat at Falluja was an enormous fillip to their pride and self-confidence. As the militants have grown stronger, U.S. soldiers have increasingly withdrawn from Iraqi streets. While the Americans have wanted to seem less provocative to the Iraqi people, they have certainly sent a different image to the holy warriors and ex-Baathists. Washington forgot historical rule number one about getting enemies to surrender and acquiesce: You must first beat them. They must see clearly that they have no hope. In a Middle Eastern context, your hayba, the awe that comes with indomitable power, must overwhelm them. This has not happened in Iraq since the fall of Saddam.”

“But we first have to recover lost ground. Falluja was a serious defeat for the United States. Prime Minister Allawi and his Iraqi soldiers cannot now ride to the rescue. A resurrected and reformed Sunni Baathist army never could. Iraq's Arab Sunni community must have the opportunity to participate electorally in the future of the country. It is possible they will choose to drive right over the cliff. A centuries-old habit of power is a hard thing to let go of. But if they choose not to free themselves from old ways, then they will have only themselves to blame. The United States can then begin what it should have done from the beginning: slowly constructing a new Iraqi army primarily with Arab Shiites and Kurds--the foundation of Iraq's future democracy.”

the web address for the article above is
http://www.abelard.org/news/politics0410.php#falluja

bolt neck suffers as analysis of his tv debate proceeds

“Third, when asked what he thought of a preemptive war, Kerry said he would "do it in a way that passes the test, that passes the global test"....Kerry came right out and said what most Americans already feared - John Kerry will protect America only if the rest of the world approves.”

“The bottom line is that Kerry did an excellent job securing the left wing of his party. He also probably secured roughly 42% of the vote in the general election. And he did it all with style. But that’s not enough to get him elected.”

The item gives a detailed analysis of kerry's errors, dishonesty and confusions in debate.

space at abelard.org

who is bolt neck?

“In 1991, when in-the-know pundits warned of horrific losses, Kerry spoke against going into Kuwait. When 100 hours brought unforeseen victory, he retroactively supported Desert Storm. Finally, he returned to his previous opposition when Kurds and Shiites were left hanging in the victory's aftermath. The larger issue was never whether Saddam should rest atop a stolen, oil-rich country, but rather what exactly 51 percent of the voters seemed to favor on any given day.”

“Almost no one compares the present disturbing costs to previous American sacrifices at the Argonne, Guadalcanal, or the Bulge, much less preventable American miscalculations at Pearl Harbor, the Kasserine Pass, Schwienfurt, and the Yalu River, all of which sent thousands of Americans to their deaths but nevertheless did not lead to strategic defeat. In our present folly, if we are not perfect, then we are failures — war being not the age-old tragic choice between bad and worse alternatives, but a therapeutic alternative of either achieving instant utopia at little cost or calling it quits forever.

“The problem with Mr. Kerry's understandable mutability, however, is that real leaders are supposed to some degree to expect and then endure these bouts of public skepticism as the inevitable wage of seeing their vision through. Thucydides' famous encomium of Pericles centered on his ability to withstand the fury of the people - and through forbearance, unshakeable will, and patience allow his constituents to return to their senses.”

This item is from Hanson, one of the best most informed commentators on the history of warfare.

PS Thanx to the auroran sunset for much research which I have used for keeping me informed of news around the world on bolt neck’s self inflicted problems.

the web address for the article above is
http://www.abelard.org/news/politics0410.php#bolt_neck

discover kerry's favourite word
(item contains other interesting material)

"I'll never give a veto to any country over our security. But . . ."

"I believe in being strong and resolute and determined. And I will hunt down and kill the terrorists, wherever they are. But . . ."

"We have to be steadfast and resolved, and I am. And I will succeed for those troops, now that we're there. We have to succeed. We can't leave a failed Iraq. But . . ."

"I believe that we have to win this. The president and I have always agreed on that. And from the beginning, I did vote to give the authority, because I thought Saddam Hussein was a threat, and I did accept that intelligence. But . . ."

"I have nothing but respect for the British, Tony Blair, and for what they've been willing to do. But . . ."

"What I want to do is change the dynamics on the ground. And you have to do that by beginning to not back off of the Fallujahs and other places, and send the wrong message to the terrorists. You have to close the borders. You've got to show you're serious in that regard. But . . ."

"I couldn't agree more that the Iraqis want to be free and that they could be free. But . . ."

"No president, through all of American history, has ever ceded, and nor would I, the right to pre-empt in any way necessary to protect the United States of America. But . . ."

"I've never wavered in my life. I know exactly what we need to do in Iraq, and my position has been consistent: Saddam Hussein is a threat. He needed to be disarmed. We needed to go to the U.N. The president needed the authority to use force in order to be able to get him to do something, because he never did it without the threat of force. But . . ."

the web address for the article above is
http://www.abelard.org/news/politics0410.php#favorite_word


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