cellulosic ethanol subsidies in the usa
Context:
“new US Energy Bill incentives for ethanol, more investors will
be chasing the cellulosic ethanol startups [...]”
“Cellulosic ethanol production has two basic modes: bugs and
thermo-chemical attack, or some combination thereof. Specifically, variations
on Thermoanaerobacter pseudoethanolicus (pictured) are going to be corralled
in processing/fermentation reactors to consume wood breakdown products
for our alcohol needs. Alternatively, huge amounts of heat, acid, and
electricity will be thrown to the wheels of alcohol commerce, with as-yet
unevaluated consequences to the environment. The specter of genetic
modification of both feedstock organisms and bugs is yet to be grasped
by the public at large. Both of these possibilities involve patents,
of course, some of which are held by entities not presently involved
in cellulosic ethanol processing designs.
“Initially, cellulosic ethanol processes will consume materials
from naturally propagated trees (logging residues in some cases, whole
trees in others), and from agricultural byproducts. Eventually cellulosic
feedstocks will include non-food fuel crops such as switch grass and
wood from plantation trees cultivated and managed specifically to optimize
the efficiency of ethanol processing operations.
“Because natural forests contain the highest amount of cellulose
per hectare, and because the infrastructure and labor force needed for
logging and chipping exists where significant harvests are already underway,
regions already known for their forest products are likely to dominate
initially in cellulosic feedstock provision. Equally important, presently
forested acres don't generally offer much potential for food crops.
Little Bear only need be concerned if his den is dug up by the road
builders and chippers.”
A long summary starts here: page
1 page
2
“ [...] no commercial facility yet makes cellulosic ethanol.
The economic explanation is simple: it costs far too much to build such
a facility. Cellulose, a long-chain polysaccharide that makes up much
of the mass of woody plants and crop residues such as cornstalks, is
difficult--and thus expensive--to break down.
“Several technologies for producing cellulosic ethanol do exist.
The cellulose can be heated at high pressure in the presence of oxygen
to form synthesis gas, a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen that
is readily turned into ethanol and other fuels. Alternatively, industrial
enzymes can break the cellulose down into sugars. The sugars then feed
fermentation reactors in which microörganisms produce ethanol.
But all these processes are still far too expensive to use commercially.
“Even advocates of cellulosic ethanol put the capital costs of
constructing a manufacturing plant at more than twice those for a corn-based
facility, and other estimates range from three times the cost to five.
"You can make cellulosic ethanol today, but at a price that is
far from perfect," says Christopher Somerville, a plant biologist
at the University of California, Berkeley, who studies how cellulose
is formed and used in the cell walls of plants [...]”
page
3:
“ In a number of opinion papers posted on the website of Khosla
Ventures, a firm he started in 2004 that has invested heavily in biofuels
and other environmental technologies, Khosla envisions biofuel production
rapidly increasing over the next 20 years. According to his numbers,
production of corn ethanol will level off at 15 billion gallons a year
by 2014, but cellulosic ethanol will increase steadily, reaching 140
billion gallons by 2030. At that point, he predicts, biofuels will be
cheap and abundant enough to replace gasoline for almost all purposes.
“While Khosla readily acknowledges the limitations of corn-derived
ethanol, he says it has been an important "stepping-stone":
the market for corn ethanol has created an infrastructure and market
for biofuels in general, removing many of the business risks of investing
in cellulosic ethanol. "The reason that I like [corn ethanol] is
that its trajectory leads to cellulosic ethanol," he says. "Without
corn ethanol, no one would be investing in cellulosics."
“But back in the Midwest, there is a "show me" attitude
toward such blue-sky projections, and there are lingering questions
about just how the nation's vast agricultural infrastructure will switch
over to biomass. If Khosla's projections prove out, "then wonderful,"
says the University of Minnesota's Runge. "Meanwhile, we're stuck
in reality." Perhaps the main point of contention, Runge suggests,
is whether corn ethanol will in fact lead to new technologies--or stand
in their way. "It is my opinion that corn ethanol is a barrier
to converting to cellulosics," he says, pointing to the inertia
caused by political and business interests heavily invested in corn
ethanol and its infrastructure.”
related material
biofuel - a fossil fuel
replacement
the web address for the article above
is
https://www.abelard.org/news/business_markets2006.php#cellulosic_ethanol_281207 |
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putin
seeks to build a state nuclear power conglomerate
“The Kremlin is seeking to restore Russia as a leading player
in the global atomic power industry with a drive to create a state nuclear
energy giant to compete directly with Areva, of France, and Westinghouse,
which is owned by Toshiba.
“President Putin is consolidating Russian civilian nuclear assets,
including everything from uranium mining and enrichment to the design
and construction of power stations, into a single company - Atomenergoprom.
“With annual sales of about $8 billion (£3.9 billion),
Atomenergoprom is designed to be a nuclear equivalent to Gazprom, the
state-controlled Russian gas monopoly, and forms part of a strategy
to bolster the country’s position in key international industries
in which it has resources and expertise.”
related material
Nuclear power -
is nuclear power really really dangerous?
the web address for the article above
is
https://www.abelard.org/news/business_markets2006.php#nuclear_putin_111207 |
the end of the carbon age
“Government efforts to tackle climate change are creating a
"megatrend" investment opportunity that should tempt even
those sceptical about the nature and pace of global warming, Deutsche
Bank analysts said on Thursday.
“ "The climate change markets are being created by governments
through their regulation," said Mark Fulton, the bank's global
head of strategic planning and climate change strategist.
“ "Whether you believe the science or not, investable markets
are being created by governments, and these investable markets we think
will grow significantly over the next 20 to 30 years," he said
at the launch of a report on climate change investment.
“The bank has attracted around 6 billion euros (US$8.55 billion)
into climate change funds, which target firms with products that cut
greenhouse gases or help people adapt to a warmer world, in sectors
from agriculture to power and construction.” {Quoted from planetark.org]
solar mirror generation expansion
“THE 10 cents SOLUTION With utilities scrambling to meet mandates
for green power in 25 states plus the District of Columbia, analysts
say there's room for many companies. Ultimately, the technologies that
deliver reliable power at the lowest price will win. They'll be a big
success if they supply electricity at a price close to a new coal or
natural gas plant today. The magic figure is 10 cents per kilowatt-hour
(kwh) or less. "If we can lock in a 10 cents number for the life
of a solar plant, it will be a clear winner," says Mark Kapner,
senior strategy engineer at Austin Energy.
“There's an intense debate about which of the competing solar
thermal approaches will hit that target--and whether it's imminent or
5 or 10 years away. Ausra's unique claim is that its simpler technology
brings it down to the crucial 10 cents already--even with the extra
risk premium investors are demanding. "They've engineered out a
lot of the costs," explains Lewis Hay III, CEO of Florida Power
& Light. Competitors acknowledge they're at least a few years behind
in making their approaches as cheap as Ausra claims to have done, even
though most experts agree such cost reductions are going to happen.
"It seems there is a pathway to very low-cost concentrating solar
power," says Andrew Kinross at Navigant Consulting Inc. (NCI )
"This opportunity is finally taking hold." ”
—
“As a startup with newer technology, Ausra faces harder financial
challenges. Coal plant builders have been able to count on 80% to 90%
debt at an interest rate of 5.5% to 6%. Their equity investors expect
about an 11% return on equity. That puts the average cost of capital
at about 7%. But since no one has built a giant solar plant, investors
demand a risk premium. O'Donnell's equity investors want a richer 20%
rate of return. Plus, he can get only 50% debt, at an interest rate
of 7.5%. As a result, the overall cost of capital for Ausra's first
plants is 12%.
“The hope, therefore, is that the first few large plants show
investors that the risk is low, causing the future cost of capital to
drop. That would enable Ausra to lower the price below the current 10.4
cents. "Once people build one or two units, the financial risk
premium goes away," explains Jim Ferland, senior vice-president
at New Mexico utility PNM.” [Quoted from businessweek.com]
Field of mirrors graphic - click current image
to go to interactive version. Image credit: Businessweek.com
Useful article - recommended scan.
Extracting
uranium from coal ash slag heaps
“Sparton Resources announced that it had successfully produced
a small quantity of yellowcake (U3O8) from fly ash from a Chinese coal-fired
power plant.
“The uranium extraction test work is being conducted by Sparton's
processing engineering consulting firm Lyntek Inc of Denver, Colorado,
USA. The test to produce yellowcake used 6.1 kg of mixed fly ash produced
at the Xiaolongtang power plant. The ash averaged some 0.4 pounds of
U308 per tonne of ash (160 parts per million uranium).”
There is an average of approximately 2.8ppm uranium in
the earth’s crust:
“There are many uranium mines operating around the world, in
some twenty countries, though more than two thirds of world production
comes from just ten mines. Most of the uranium ore deposits at present
supporting these mines have average grades in excess of 0.10% of uranium
- that is, greater than 1000 parts per million. In the first phase of
uranium mining to the 1960s, this would have been seen as a respectable
grade, but today some Canadian mines have huge amounts of ore up to
20% U average grade. Other mines however can operate successfully with
very low grade ores.
“Some uranium is also recovered as a by-product with copper,
as at Olympic Dam in Australia, or as by-product from the treatment
of other ores, such as the gold-bearing ores of South Africa. In these
cases the concentration of uranium may be as low as a tenth of that
in orebodies mined primarily for their uranium content.” [Quoted
from world-nuclear.org]
the web address for the article above
is
https://www.abelard.org/news/business_markets2006.php#carbon_age_211007 |
pork
barrel and self-interest
“But assisting Detroit’s suicide seems to be contagious.
Everyone wants to get in on it, including Toyota. Toyota, which pioneered
the industry-leading, 50-miles-per-gallon Prius hybrid, has joined with
the Big Three U.S. automakers in lobbying against the tougher mileage
standards in the Senate version of the draft energy bill.
“Now why would Toyota, which has used the Prius to brand itself
as the greenest car company, pull such a stunt? Is it because Toyota
wants to slow down innovation in Detroit on more energy efficient vehicles,
which Toyota already dominates, while also keeping mileage room to build
giant pickup trucks, like the Toyota Tundra, at the gas-guzzler end
of the U.S. market?”
| Conversion
table |
imperial
[UK] gallon |
US
gallon |
litre |
| imperial
(UK) gallon |
1 |
1.2 |
4.546 |
| US
gallon |
0.83 |
1 |
3.785 |
| litre |
0.22 |
0.26 |
1 |
the web address for the article above
is
https://www.abelard.org/news/business_markets2006.php#counter_intuitive_041007 |
replacing platinum in fuel cells
“Japan's Daihatsu Motor Co Ltd said on Friday it has developed
a technology to make fuel cells without platinum, the precious metal
used in the electrolyte process in existing hydrogen-based fuel cells.”
related material
Fuel cells and
battery-powered vehicles
the web address for the article above
is
https://www.abelard.org/news/business_markets2006.php#no_platinum_200907 |
china’s
fake industry - the auroran sunset
Fascinating five-page look at China's product cloning
industry.
“The miniOne looked just like Apple's iPhone, down to the slick
no-button interface. But it was more. It ran popular mobile software
that the iPhone wouldn't. It worked with nearly every worldwide cellphone
carrier, not just AT&T, and not only in the U.S. It promised to
cost half as much as the iPhone and be available to 10 times as many
consumers.”
—
“Nearly every type of product can be - and is - cloned in China,
sometimes so well that the ripped-off manufacturers inadvertently service
the fakes when warranty claims come in. Cloners make air conditioners
with the LG brand name in the country's remote west, along what was
once the old Silk Road trading route. But cloners don't have to sell
their wares under the same brand name: In Anhui province, near the Yangtze
River, one of China's biggest auto manufacturers builds a part-for-part
replica of a top-selling Chevrolet model, then slaps a new badge on
the car. In the south, one cloning operation didn't just copy a technology
company's product line - it duplicated the entire company, creating
a shadow enterprise with corporate headquarters, factories, and sales
and support staff.”
—
“The end of Chinese cloning will come when Chinese products become
good enough to stand on their own, just as Japan's did in the 1970s
and Korea's did in the 1980s. The difference is that China is moving
much faster toward this goal than Korea or Japan ever did.”
the web address for the article above
is
https://www.abelard.org/news/business_markets2006.php#china_fakes_190807 |
here
comes pv
“[...] total net revenues grew 174.5% year-over-year to $246.7
million, and total production output grew 138.2% year-over-year to 64.7MW
[...]”
—
“ Recent Business Highlights
• In its key sales geographies, Suntech's sales continue to outpace
market growth. In particular, sales volumes have grown measurably in
Spain, where the Company shipped 27MW in the first quarter of 2007,
similar to shipment volumes in Germany.
• Recent project wins highlight Suntech's increasing traction
in the North American market. Suntech was selected by Sun Edison as
the cornerstone supplier for the 8.2MW Alamosa Central Solar Plant in
Colorado -- one of the largest North American solar power plants. Suntech
is also collaborating with BASS Electric to supply a 450KW PV system
to the San Francisco International Airport's new Terminal T3 solar project.
• The Company has increased its BIPV sales and marketing activities
especially in North America demonstrated by its letter of intent with
Open Energy Corp. this month. Suntech intends to provide cost effective
and high quality production of their SolarSave(R) PV Tiles and explore
broad initiatives to expand BIPV product sales within the North American
market.
• The Company has recently won multiple projects totaling 5MW
in South Korea demonstrating the growing strength of its Asia-based
sales outside of China. The market size for solar products in South
Korea was 18MW in 2006 according to Solarbuzz.
• The Company is on track with a key step in its move towards
multi-gigawatt manufacturing with the construction of its new facility
in Wuxi, China. The 540,000 square foot, 1GW capacity plant is scheduled
to begin installation of new PV cell production lines in June 2007.
• Suntech's innovative 20% conversion efficiency PV cell, based
on its new low cost ''Pluto'' technology platform, is ahead of schedule
achieving over 18% conversion efficiency in pilot production successfully
validating the commercial feasibility of this technology in comparison
to conventional PV cell technology.
• To address the growing market for thin film and BIPV products,
Suntech recently began construction on a thin film R&D and manufacturing
facility in Shanghai. The initial phase with 50MW of capacity is expected
to begin operation by the middle of 2008. Suntech projects an average
production cost of $1.20 per watt and conversion efficiency of 6% to
9%. The thin film modules will be nearly 6 square meters in size contributing
to a balance of system installation cost for Suntech's thin film solution
that it believes will be significantly lower than other PV solutions.
• MSK's third-party PV cell to module business was halted during
the quarter. Production has since started in Suntech's Wuxi facilities
and has now become an integral and profitable part of Suntech's operations,
providing Suntech with additional capacity to meet the increasing demand
for Suntech's products with nearly no incremental operating expenses.
During the first quarter, Suntech also successfully established BIPV
production lines at its Wuxi facility. First Quarter 2007 Results”
related material
Photovoltaics
(solar cells) briefings document
energy: some
ways of the future - on photovoltaics
the web address for the article above
is
https://www.abelard.org/news/business_markets2006.php#photovoltaics_030607 |
new
billion dollar fund to concentrate on ‘alternative’ energy
“JPMorgan, seeking to capitalise on the boom in environmentally
friendly technologies, has established an alternative energy investment
banking unit and hired a former executive from General Electric to run
it.
“In an internal memo sent to staff this week, JPMorgan said it
had hired Vandana Gupta from General Electric to head the new effort.
“At GE, Ms Gupta managed $1bn in equity investments in the energy
and power sectors, including solar and wind power.”
When will one of these “ethical”/“green”
fund owners develop the courage to include the most serious alternative,
safe clean nuclear power?
The cowardice detracts from both the greenness of their offerings and
the attraction for serious investors. [the auroran
sunset]
the
return of nuclear power
“Today, only eight countries are known to have a nuclear weapons
capability. By contrast, 56 operate civil research reactors, and 30
have some 435 commercial nuclear power reactors with a total installed
capacity of over 370 000 MWe (see table). This is more than three times
the total generating capacity of France or Germany from all sources.
Some 30 further power reactors are under construction, equivalent to
6% of existing capacity, while over 60 are firmly planned, equivalent
to 18% of present capacity.
“Sixteen countries depend on nuclear power for at least a quarter
of their electricity. France and Lithuania get around three quarters
of their power from nuclear energy, while Belgium, Bulgaria, Hungary,
Slovakia, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, Slovenia and Ukraine get
one third or more. Japan, Germany and Finland get more than a quarter
of their power from nuclear energy, while the USA gets one fifth.”
Looking
at the US nuclear power industry:
- The USA has over 100 nuclear reactors providing almost 20% of its
electricity. These have a high level of performance
- With deregulation, both ownership and operation of these is becoming
concentrated.
- Extension of reactor lifetimes from 40 to 60 years is enhancing the
economic competitiveness of plants.
- The industry envisages substantial new nuclear capacity by 2020 and
several regulatory initiatives are preparing the way for new orders.
“After 20 years of steady decline, government R&D funding
for nuclear energy is being revived with the objective of rebuilding US
leadership in nuclear technology. In 1997 nuclear fission R&D was, at
US$ 37 million, lower than in France, South Korea, or Canada - only 2%
of total energy R&D, which compared pathetically with 68% (US$ 2537 million)
of a much larger budget in Japan. From the 1999 budget, this situation
has been turned around with various programs including the flagship Nuclear
Energy Research Initiative (NERI) and also Plant Optimisation. The first
45 NERI grants were awarded in 1999, signalling a reinvigoration of the
federal role in nuclear research, following successful conclusion of the
advanced reactor program in 1998.
“For [financial Year] 2008 (from October 2007) the Department
of Energy is seeking $875 million for its nuclear energy programs. The
Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative for closing the fuel cycle and supporting
the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership would receive $395 million of
this and Generation-IV R&D would get $36 million, chiefly for the
very high temperature reactor. The Nuclear Power 2010 program aimed
at early deployment of advanced reactors would get $114 million. ”
The previous linked page has much other information
on the history and development of nuclear power in the USA.
related material
Nuclear power - is
nuclear power really really dangerous?
the web address for the article above
is
https://www.abelard.org/news/business_markets2006.php#nuclear_return_260507
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censorship
by british airways - who runs that circus!
Advertising like this you cannot buy. First crosses,
now this. Methinks the shareholders could do with a new CEO.
“When passengers on board a British Airways flight watched the
new James Bond flick "Casino Royale", some sharp-eyed viewers
who'd already seen the film noticed something was different about it.
“And now we know what it is.
“There's a moment in the flick where Sir Richard Branson, who
runs rival Virgin Atlantic Airlines, makes a cameo appearance as an
airport security scanner.
“You can see his face in the original film.
“But in the version being shown on the BA flight, the scene has
been edited to feature him only from the back.
“And the airline has also apparently blurred out a shot of one
of its competitor's tail fins, so the word "Virgin" can't
be seen.”
the web address for the article above is
https://www.abelard.org/news/business_markets2006.php#ba_virgin_240407
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| a
more interesting epistle by kaletsky
I’'m not fully convinced by the story, but it
is at least an interesting angle.
“Globalisation has also affected the growth of borrowing in
ways that are not yet fully understood. For example, outsourcing has
made Western economies far more stable, as demonstrated by the marked
decline in all measures of economic volatility since the early 1990s,
especially in Britain and the US. This new-found stability has, in turn,
made high levels of borrowing both safer and more attractive for businesses
and consumers in the advanced economies. At the same time, the integration
of global capital markets has allowed countries that embrace high levels
of borrowing and financial sophistication, such as America, Britain
and Spain, to take advantage of excess savings in more conservative
countries such as Japan and Germany.”
<
the web address for the article above is
https://www.abelard.org/news/business_markets2006.php#kaletsky_121106
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| updated:
americans very slowly waking up to energy crunch - starting with republicans
in california
“The "California Solar Initiative," backed by Governor
Arnold Schwarzenegger, aims to add 3,000 megawatts of solar energy over
11 years through the installation of 1 million rooftop solar energy
systems on homes, businesses, farms, schools and public buildings.”
—
“ Solar spending could save California utility customers an estimated
$9 billion from a reduced need to build new power plants and purchase
electricity supplies during high demand days in the summer, according
to a commission report. The Republican governor's energy goals call
for making renewable energy like solar and wind power 20 percent of
California's electricity resources by 2017.”
dishonesty
and anti-environmental action by democrats and unions
“After two years of trouble with the legislative effort to institute
his "Million Solar Roofs" plan, Arnold Schwarzenegger hit
pay dirt today when the California Public Utilities Commission enacted
the California Solar Initiative or CSI...roughly $3 billion in rate-based
customer incentives over the next decade to install solar power devices
to generate 3000 megawatts of electric power [...]”
—
“ In 2005, things were better organized, and the solar roofs plan
became Senate Bill 1, a bipartisan venture between liberal LA state
Senator Kevin Murray and conservative Orange County Senator John Campbell
(now California's newest congressman). SB 1 took flight from the Senate
on a wave of bipartisan support, environmentalist backing, and acclaim
from editorials around the state, only to run afoul of opposition from
organized labor and Democrats in the Assembly who were determined to
deny Schwarzenegger an image-boosting win as he pushed his ill-fated
"Year of Reform" initiatives in the hotly contested special
election. Another problem was that the governor, distracted by his coming
special election debacle, didn't campaign for the bill after he declared
it his top legislative priority.”
related material
replacements
for fossil fuels—what can be done about it?
the web address for the article above is
https://www.abelard.org/news/business_markets2006.php#california_140106
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