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1st presidential debate: obama drops from over 71% to under 65%

trading (betting) thzt Obama will win the presidential election in November 2012

Obama started at over 71% on Intrade. He’s now rated at under 65%.

This method can be taken as an example of ‘the wisdom of crowds’. This theory claims that if you have sufficient intelligent people with a variety of backgrounds and experience, they can sometimes make better judgements than individual ‘experts’ on very complex situations.

How good is this theory can be tested by using this method. People who use this web site will not be short of a bit of spare cash. These are real bets and, therefore, not so easily influenced by spin.

even the leftist Guardian newspaper is crying

“Both campaigns set low expectations, but only Obama met them.”

From elsewhere:

“25% think Obama won debate - apparently Romney was wrong about the 47%, it is actually 25%”

And elsewhere:

“Outside the liberal bubble -- forced to be alone on a stage with a very serious, very prepared candidate -- Barack Obama was in trouble. Big Trouble.

“And he has no one but himself -- and his media coddlers -- to blame.”

the web address for the article above is




roosevelt did not ‘end the depression’

Another ‘Democrat’ myth - and reality.

date average unemployment Dow Jones index
Jan 1927 3.3% 155
Oct 1929 3.3% 168
Sep 1931 5.5% 343
Oct 1933 22.9% 93
Nov 1933 23.2% 90
Jan 1934 21.2% 100
Nov 1934 23.2% 93
Jul 1935 21.3% 119
Dec 1936 15.3% 182
Jan 1937 15.1% 179
Aug 1937 13.5% 187
Jan 1938 17.4% 121
Jan 1940 14.6% 151
numbers from The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression, Amity Shlaes

It is often claimed that, in fact, Roosevelt prolonged the Depression by his actions, but that is, of course, unprovable.

the web address for the article above is

on schiff video

Be warned that this video is a boring, long hysterical rant.

17:02 mins

Peter Schiff is talking rubbish. His ranting is based in total ignorance. Thank god the USA has Ben Bernanke instead of that idiot.

The Fed is doing the only thing possible.

The UK are already going down this path, and Europe is struggling to move in the same direction.

The problem is not the Fed, it is the irresponsible politicians who over-borrowed.

And even that was in response to the squeeze applied by cheap Chinese labour and Middle-East greed, and the ‘Democrat’ slush Fannie fund.

Marker at abelard.org

“Thus inflation is unjust and deflation is inexpedient. Of the two perhaps deflation is, if we rule out exaggerated inflations such as that of Germany, the worse; because it is worse, in an impoverished world, to provoke unemployment than to disappoint the rentier. But it is necessary that we should weigh one evil against the other. It is easier to agree that both are evils to be shunned.[...].”
[J.M. Keynes, Essays in Persuasion, p. 75 - Social consequences of the changes in the value of money, 1923]

Marker at abelard.org

Here is Charles Gasparino on the subject.
He has a firm grasp of the realities, unlike Schiff, Bernanke is left with no realistic alternative.

Gasparino has integrity and he is refusing to go along with the foolish attacks on Bernanke, attacks which are political rather than realistic.

Gasparino (and Bernanke) fully realise that Obama is a walking disaster area.

“But this is QE 3 — and the stunt didn’t do much the first two times. Maybe it kept things from getting worse, but nothing much has happened in terms of significant, sustained growth.

“The problem: Many of the businesses that have the good credit to borrow more aren’t, because they’re afraid of what to expect from a president who almost brags about plans to raise their taxes, no matter how lousy the economy. And banks aren’t so quick to lend no matter how much the Fed pumps in for the same reason: They’re scared about what the future of Obamanomics has in store for them.

“Yes, the stock market loves the move — the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 200 points yesterday. But that’s only because Bernanke also signaled yesterday that he’ll continue to keep short-term interest at just about 0 percent — which keeps bond returns so low that investors are almost forced to buy stocks.

“Bernanke is well aware of the consequences of printing money: commodity price inflation (higher oil and food prices) and a further debasing of our currency.

“And he knows that at some point he’ll have to do just the opposite, and start contracting the money supply and raising short-term rates before full-fledged inflation kicks in. When he does, the “wealth effect” of a rising stock market will evaporate, and so will the rest of the economy.

“But at least in the short term, he thinks it’s all worth the risk, considering the alternative: a nation falling back into severe recession because of a president with no clue about growing the economy, who thinks the best way to create jobs is to crush those who do the job-creating.”

related material
the mechanics of inflation: The great government swindle and how it works

the web address for the article above is

tories take over in the uk, obama continues to wreck the usa economy - the difference a year makes

competitiveness ratings
UK 2011 10th
2012 8th
USA 2011 5th
2012 7th

the web address for the article above is

‘democrats’ are lying, about gdp, about ‘recovery’, about tax

The GDP is a nonsense figure when you borrow 6 trillion dollars, and claim that is growth'.

It isnt growth - it is future taxation.

Quantitative easing', correctly known as printing money, is debauching the currency. It is stealing from the poor. That is, it is more tax, a secret tax on those least able to protect themselves.

Taking money from successful car manufacturers like Ford, and giving that money to failing companies like GM, thus undermining the viability of the sound businesses, is a form of economic madness. But of course, the ‘Democrats’ are owned by the unions.

Increasing public sector union make-work by all these surreptitious taxes is not increasing employment. It is taking from the productive economy to feed the ‘Democrats’clientele.

And there is one hell of a price to pay in lowered competitiveness;
to pay in a lower valued currency;
and to pay the massive delayed taxes of 6 trillion dollars ‘borrowing’.

related material
tax, tax, it’s all hidden tax
GDP 1: gross domestic product
GDP 2: GDP and other quality of life measurements

the web address for the article above is

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