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solar cell investments to reach parity with semiconductor industry by 2010
“ [...] PV cell makers Q-Cells AG and REC Group said they expect
a reduction in PV system costs by 40 percent from 2006 to 2010.
“With these cost reductions, many regions throughout the world
will soon reach grid parity - a point at which PV electricity costs
the same or less than power derived from the electrical grid. PV grid
parity is expected beginning 2012 in nations where sunshine is plentiful
and constant, and 2018 in areas of the world with adequate or medium
sun exposure.”
related material
photovoltaics
(solar cells)
the web address for the article above is
https://www.abelard.org/news/energy0805.php#solar_cell_investment_260608
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dodgy
report on sugar cane crop insect attack
 “A
new pest in Brazil's largest sugar cane growing state, Sao Paulo, could
cause annual crop losses of up to $245 million, if it spreads as expected,
a leading sugar cane research center said on Tuesday.
“The giant cane borer (Telchin licus), which is common in Brazil's
northeastern states, was spotted for the first time in Sao Paulo last
July, in the Limeira area and "has disseminated," the Sugar
Cane Technology Center said.”
Left: telchin licus larva. Image: bigbrazil.com.br
Telchin licus is a moth which is a member of the
Castniidae family. This family has some butterfly-like characteristics,
which may cause confusion.
For comparison, on the related Australia sun moths:
“They fly during the day and have clubbed antenna, but they are
not butterflies. They are Sun Moths [members of the Castniidae family].
A family of moths that [are] active during the day. They usually have dull
brown forewings but bright colour hind wings.” [Quoted from linus.socs.uts.edu.au]
Note that sun moths are found in Australia, particularly in Queensland,
a major sugar cane-farming region. However, here the larvae are reported
as feeding beneath the soil, on the roots of grasses and sedges. Sugar
cane (Saccharum officinarum) is a grass.
Harvesting sugarcane in Brazil (using the equivalent
of a combine harvester). Image source: whataboutbrazil.com
| Taxonomy: |
Telchin
licus, also known as Castnia licus, Giant
Sugar Cane Borer Moth
Phylum: Uniramia
Superclass: Hexapoda
Class: Insecta
Order: Lepidoptera
Superfamily: Castnioidea
Family: Castniidae
Genus: Telchin
Species: Telchin licus |
Saccharum
officinarum, Sugar
cane or Sugarcane
Kingdom: Plantae
Division: Magnoliophyta
Class: Liliopsida
Order: Poales
Family: Poaceae
Genus: Saccharum
Species: Saccharum officinarum |
related material
biofuels
sugar cane
the web address for the article above is
https://www.abelard.org/news/energy0805.php#sugar_cane_insect_attack_120608
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at
last, realism starts to emerge - “the world would need to build
dozens of nuclear power plants a year...”
“The IEA said the $45 trillion is equal to 1.1 percent of average
annual global gross domestic product over the period [...].”
—
“The world would need to build dozens of nuclear power plants
a year and bury carbon emitted from dozens more gas and coal plants,
plus cutting the carbon intensity of cars, trucks, buses and planes
eightfold, to halve emissions by mid-century, the International Energy
Agency said in a new report.
“Without taking action on government policy, emissions would
surge by 130 percent and oil demand would rise by 70 percent by 2050,
the IEA said, far beyond the level that many experts believe the world
is capable of sustainably producing.
“The report, commissioned by the Group of Eight three years ago,
lays down the gauntlet for G8 leaders gathering in northern Japan next
month, where Tokyo is expected to urge them to agree on a target of
chopping greenhouse gases in half by 2050.”
—
“ "It will essentially require a new global energy revolution
which would completely transform the way we produce and use energy...
We need to act now."
“The IEA said halving emissions by 2050 would require "all
options up to a cost of US$200 per tonne of CO2" -- and in the
worst case US$500 a tonne -- giving a rare long-term forecast that suggests
a sharp rise from the 27 euro (US$42) a tonne price for carbon emissions
rights trading in Europe.”
And more.
related material
“The American economy runs at about $10 trillion a year, and
growing. $100 billion is about one percent of the US GNP year in, year
out. As can be seen, this is a very large project, but perfectly do-able.”
[Quoted from abelard.org,
2003, 16 april]
the web address for the article above is
https://www.abelard.org/news/energy0805.php#world_nuclear_power_090608
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motoring
economics usa - second-hand hybrids rising in price
“I was visiting my local Toyota dealer in Bethesda, Md., last
week to trade in one hybrid car for another. There is now a two-month
wait to buy a Prius, which gets close to 50 miles per gallon. The dealer
told me I was lucky. My hybrid was going up in value every day, so I
didn’t have to worry about waiting a while for my new car. But
if it were not a hybrid, he said, he would deduct each day $200 from
the trade-in price for every $1-a-barrel increase in the OPEC price
of crude oil. When I saw the rows and rows of unsold S.U.V.’s
parked in his lot, I understood why.”
Note, an American gallon is approximately four-fifths
of a UK gallon.
“2008: By the end of 2008, GM will offer eight hybrid models,
estimated to be more than any automotive manufacturer in the U.S.”
[Quoted from gm.com]
Page
showing GM hybrid vehicles, including SUVs.
“On Tuesday, General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ) Chief
Executive Officer Rick Wagoner announced that four truck and SUV plants
in North America are being shut down as the company reacts to rising
fuel costs and increased demand for compact cars and crossover vehicles...”
[Quoted from forbes.com]
“The closing is GM's reaction to long-term trends in energy
costs and what it considers a permanent shift in consumer behavior.
Wagoner said that 18 of its next 19 product launches will be cars and
crossovers, which is more proof of the company's
belief in the trend that consumers are shifting away from buying trucks
and SUVs.
“GM officials said that while it will close plants and slash
shifts, it will increase production of energy efficient vehicles, including
hybrids and its new Volt electric vehicle.” [Quoted from wisn.com]
related material
transportable
fuels
Fuel cells
and battery-powered vehicles
end note
- Usually refers to a car that borrows features
from a SUV, sometimes called
a CUV or crossover utility vehicle.
the web address for the article above is
https://www.abelard.org/news/energy0805.php#valuable_hybrids_040608
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why
relying on solar and wind energy does not work - the example of california
“A dirty secret about California’s energy economy is
that it imports lots of energy from neighboring states to make up
for the shortfall caused by having too few power plants. Up to 20
percent of the state’s power comes from coal-burning plants
in Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Colorado, and Montana, and another significant
portion comes from large-scale hydropower in Oregon, Washington State,
and the Hoover Dam near Las Vegas. “California practices a sort
of energy colonialism,” says James Lucier of Capital Alpha Partners,
a Washington, D.C.–area investment group. “They rely on
western states to supply them with power generation they are unwilling
to build for themselves”—and leave those states to deal
with the resulting pollution.”
—
“Californians still enjoy the fruits of those manufacturing
industries—driving cars built in the Midwest and the South,
importing chemicals and resins and paints and plastics produced elsewhere,
and flying on jumbo jets manufactured in places like Everett, Washington.
California can pretend to have controlled energy consumption, but
it has just displaced it.”
This article is confusing and problematic
Yes, Californians are very foolish to close
the nuclear generators.
No, they are very sane to be spending 100s of millions of dollars. That
is what is going to be required.
In general, The United States is improving
efficiency by around 2% per annum . That is, they get more GDP per unit
energy year by year. But this is also offset by increased production.
The point about shifting energy rich production
‘abroad’ is important. That is also what much of the West
is now doing, and then falsely claiming to be reducing pollution. In
fact, this is often increasing pollution by shifting energy-heavy production
to China, which is far more energy inefficient than
Europe.
This, for example, is a present lie perpetrated
by socialist Labour and the Millipede (Foreign Minister, David Milliban)
in the UK.
It is important to note that most reporters
do not/cannot properly distinguish between the production capacity of
generating plant, and how much that plant produces in a year. This is
particularly important when comparing wind or photovoltaic with say,
nuclear power.
Nuclear
power tends to run at 85% up time and higher, whereas wind
is often running at 20-30% and photovoltaics do not work at night.
The power rating may be a megawatt, but if
plant is out of production much of the time, then in no manner does
a megawatt of photovoltaic capacity or wind energy equate with a megawatt
of nuclear power.
This misperception is further aggravated by
‘reporters’ quoting megawatts hours produced and megawatt
capacities as if they are comparable. This is a gross error, as a one
megawatt unit produces a megawatt hour of electricity every hour it
is running. That is 100% up time is approximately 8760 megawatts hours
per annum.
Another frequent confusion is confounding energy desiderata
with electricity desiderata. Electricity is a type of energy, but energy is
not necessarily in the form of electricity (see
World primary energy
consumption table).
Further, a photovoltaic array is rated on
peak performance, whereas not only is there night to consider but also
cloud cover, rain, angle to the sun and so on. Meanwhile, a wind generator
is only optimal at some wind speeds. Thus, a solar or wind farm may
only be 20% efficient at best.
If solar or wind farms over several different regions
are linked together to provide power, then it is possible that the combined
energy output efficiency could be as high as 50%. Why? Because when
there is a calm or it is night in one region, it could well be windy
or a sunny day in another, so overall there can still be some energy generation.
I am not convinced that this efficiency is, in fact, possible because
of the energy losses that would occur transporting the power generated
over long distances. A possibly more effective method could be remote generating
units where the power generated is transformed into a liquid fuel such as
methanol.
Liquid fuel is more energy efficient to transport, whether
by pipelines or by sea-tankers. This is why the fossil fuel oil industry
works, there being only 2-5% losses even when the crude is refined and
transported between continents.
Below is a renewable energy ‘super-grid’ as proposed by the
Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation. Note that the TREC
is suggesting such a grid, not in order to ensure a better energy efficiency
for the various generation methods, but to provide “Europe
with power and cut [...] carbon emissions”, together with energy
for desalination and, they hope, better political and economic relationships
between European countries and those in desert countries of North Africa
and the Middle East.
Renewable energy super-grid.
Image: Trans-Mediterranean
Renewable Energy Cooperation (TREC)
Note that TREC believes that they can
“transmit the clean electrical power via High Voltage Direct Current
(HVDC) transmission lines throughout those areas and as from 2020 (with
overall [...] 10-15% transmission losses) to Europe”.
related material
non-pv
(photovoltaic) solar technology
Replacing
fossil fuels—the scale of the problem
book review -
the nuclear energy option
the web address for the article above is
https://www.abelard.org/news/energy0805.php#california_dreaming_300508
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biofuels - reasons for caution
biofuel
interests remind that correlation is not causation
“Speaker after speaker at the World Biofuels convention, which
ended on Thursday in southern city Seville, said plant-based fuel production
accounted for just 3 percent of world demand for grains.”
—
“Industry speakers said grain prices had risen due to a world-wide
credit squeeze driving investment funds into commodities.
“This is logically part of the market, but it is worth recalling
that speculative positions in the Chicago maize market are today three
times stocks for the end of the 2008/09 campaign, as forecast by the
US Department of Agriculture," said Javier Salgado, chairman of
Abengoa Bioenergy, one of Europe's leading biofuel makers.
—
“For many European producers, the debate over a trade-off between
food and fuel was redundant as they could not compete against imports
of US biodiesel, which they say receives unfair tax breaks.”
Note also that:
- there is a long-term squeeze with food stocks shrinking
year by year. Foolish governments are subsidising biofuel, the USA to
the tune of more that $10 billion a year;
- huge stocks of grain go to feed farm animals,some
of which return less that one calorie for every ten in fodder;
- some of the biofuel stocks may be taking more energy
to produce than they yield;
- meanwhile, rising populations, and standards of
eating/fattening, continue.
“Rice prices nosedived today as Japan moved closer to unlocking
its massive hidden surplus and bullish supply forecasts routed speculators.”
—
“Behind the sharp drop, which contributed to a 14 per cent collapse
in the rice price over the week [...]” [Quoted from timesonline.co.uk]
Excellent news - now how will the farmers react!
Secret reserves, eh - some people run their country
with more sense.
world
bank - don’t rush to biofuels
“A senior World Bank official said on Thursday that countries
should not greatly increase biofuels production until there is more
clarity about how much they have contributed to the global food price
crisis.
“Juergen Voegele, director for agriculture and rural development
department at the World Bank, cautioned against shifting a lot of the
blame to biofuels but also said massive subsidies for the biofuel industry
was not helping the crisis.
This
may also interest those watching this area:
“E-Fuel
Corp unveiled on Thursday the "MicroFueler" touting it
as the world's first machine that allows homeowners to make their own
ethanol and pump the brew directly into their cars.
“The portable unit that sells for $10,000....”
The unit is reported as making 132 litres a week at
$1 a litre.
There’s a short fun film at the linked company
page.
Keep in mind the effects on the sugar markets if this
became popular.
related material
biofuels
land conservation
and food production
comparing fertility rates and populations in europe and beyond
the web address for the article above is
https://www.abelard.org/news/energy0805.php#biofuel_reasons_for_caution_160508
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another
step toward cellulosic ethanol production
“Oklahoma secured land for the world's largest stand of switchgrass
devoted to cellulosic ethanol production. Acknowledging concerns over
ethanol production impacting food prices, Oklahoma advances switchgrass,
a different type of energy crop, which has higher energy output than
corn and does not compete with human or animal food sources.
“The Oklahoma Bioenergy Center (OBC), a state-initiative championed
by Gov. Brad Henry, secured land to enable the planting of more than
1,100 acres of production-scale demonstration fields for cellulosic
energy crops, such as switchgrass and sorghum to contribute to the United
States' bioenergy effort. Planting will take place within the next 45
days.
“The critical piece of this effort is 1,000 acres of switchgrass
which will be planted near Guymon, Okla. in the state's panhandle. This
switchgrass field will be the first of its size anywhere in the world
focused on biomass production. Additional acreage of sorghum and switchgrass
will be planted near Chickasha and Maysville in central Oklahoma.
“Rising food costs recently resulted in a pushback against renewable
fuels. However, cellulosic ethanol from sources like switchgrass and
sorghum are non-competitive with food sources for animals and humans
and remove cellulosic ethanol from this discussion," said Oklahoma
Secretary of Energy David Fleischaker. "More so, this dedicated
land will allow us to demonstrate the advantages of switchgrass.”
See also the
setting of energy policy - biofuels: a study in politics as usual
related material
switchgrass
the web address for the article above is
https://www.abelard.org/news/energy0805.php#cellulosic_ethanol_050508
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old fools ‘discussing’ nuclear power without the slightest understanding of the situation
Context: Energy questions in the UK House of Commons,
asked by all parties and answered by a (NuLabour) ‘energy’
minister.
No context with the fossil fuel filth.
No context with the subsidies to the so-called renewables.
No context given the lights will go out.
No context that energy prices must rise as an imperative.
No context of security.
No understanding of the very low real waste situation.
The Lib Dems in cloud cuckoo land;
Socialist Labour with no business sense;
while the Conservative Tories just cynically watch
the dopes wallow.
here are a few bits of informarion either ignored or
unknown by most paticipants:
related material
the
nuclear energy option
nuclear power - is nuclear power
really really dangerous?
ionising
radiation and health—risk analysis
the web address for the article above is
https://www.abelard.org/news/energy0805.php#uk_mps_nuclear_010508
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